[Fresh Ink] Molten Lead - Uri Avnery

[Richard Menec]

<http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1230937462>

Uri Avnery's Column

Molten Lead

03/01/09

JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, Aljazeera's Arabic channel was reporting on events in 
Gaza. Suddenly the camera was pointing upwards towards the dark sky. The 
screen was pitch black. Nothing could be seen, but there was a sound to be 
heard: the noise of airplanes, a frightening, a terrifying droning.

It was impossible not to think about the tens of thousands of Gazan children 
who were hearing that sound at that moment, cringing with fright, paralyzed 
by fear, waiting for the bombs to fall.

"ISRAEL MUST defend itself against the rockets that are terrorizing our 
Southern towns," the Israeli spokesmen explained. "Palestinians must respond 
to the killing of their fighters inside the Gaza Strip," the Hamas spokesmen 
declared.

As a matter of fact, the cease-fire did not collapse, because there was no 
real cease-fire to start with. The main requirement for any cease-fire in 
the Gaza Strip must be the opening of the border crossings. There can be no 
life in Gaza without a steady flow of supplies. But the crossings were not 
opened, except for a few hours now and again. The blockade on land, on sea 
and in the air against a million and a half human beings is an act of war, 
as much as any dropping of bombs or launching of rockets. It paralyzes life 
in the Gaza Strip: eliminating most sources of employment, pushing hundreds 
of thousands to the brink of starvation, stopping most hospitals from 
functioning, disrupting the supply of electricity and water.

Those who decided to close the crossings - under whatever pretext - knew 
that there is no real cease-fire under these conditions.

That is the main thing. Then there came the small provocations which were 
designed to get Hamas to react. After several months, in which hardly any 
Qassam rockets were launched, an army unit was sent into the Strip "in order 
to destroy a tunnel that came close to the border fence". From a purely 
military point of view, it would have made more sense to lay an ambush on 
our side of the fence. But the aim was to find a pretext for the termination 
of the cease-fire, in a way that made it plausible to put the blame on the 
Palestinians. And indeed, after several such small actions, in which Hamas 
fighters were killed, Hamas retaliated with a massive launch of rockets, 
and - lo and behold - the cease-fire was at an end. Everybody blamed Hamas.

WHAT WAS THE AIM? Tzipi Livni announced it openly: to liquidate Hamas rule 
in Gaza. The Qassams served only as a pretext.

Liquidate Hamas rule? That sounds like a chapter out of "The March of Folly". 
After all, it is no secret that it was the Israeli government which set up 
Hamas to start with. When I once asked a former Shin-Bet chief, Yaakov Peri, 
about it, he answered enigmatically: "We did not create it, but we did not 
hinder its creation."

For years, the occupation authorities favored the Islamic movement in the 
occupied territories. All other political activities were rigorously 
suppressed, but their activities in the mosques were permitted. The 
calculation was simple and naive: at the time, the PLO was considered the 
main enemy, Yasser Arafat was the current Satan. The Islamic movement was 
preaching against the PLO and Arafat, and was therefore viewed as an ally.

With the outbreak of the first intifada in 1987, the Islamic movement 
officially renamed itself Hamas (Arabic initials of "Islamic Resistance 
Movement") and joined the fight. Even then, the Shin-Bet took no action 
against them for almost a year, while Fatah members were executed or 
imprisoned in large numbers. Only after a year, were Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and 
his colleagues also arrested.

Since then the wheel has turned. Hamas has now become the current Satan, and 
the PLO is considered by many in Israel almost as a branch of the Zionist 
organization. The logical conclusion for an Israeli government seeking peace 
would have been to make wide-ranging concessions to the Fatah leadership: 
ending of the occupation, signing of a peace treaty, foundation of the State 
of Palestine, withdrawal to the 1967 borders, a reasonable solution of the 
refugee problem, release of all Palestinian prisoners. That would have 
arrested the rise of Hamas for sure.

But logic has little influence on politics. Nothing of this sort happened. 
On the contrary, after the murder of Arafat, Ariel Sharon declared that 
Mahmoud Abbas, who took his place, was a "plucked chicken". Abbas was not 
allowed the slightest political achievement. The negotiations, under 
American auspices, became a joke. The most authentic Fatah leader, Marwan 
Barghouti, was sent to prison for life. Instead of a massive prisoner 
release, there were petty and insulting "gestures".

Abbas was systematically humiliated, Fatah looked like an empty shell and 
Hamas won a resounding victory in the Palestinian election - the most 
democratic election ever held in the Arab world. Israel boycotted the 
elected government. In the ensuing internal struggle, Hamas assumed direct 
control over the Gaza Strip.

And now, after all this, the government of Israel decided to "liquidate 
Hamas rule in Gaza" - with blood, fire and columns of smoke.

THE OFFICIAL NAME of the war is "Cast Lead", two words from a children's 
song about a Hanukkah toy.

It would be more accurate to call it "the the Election War".

In the past, too, military action has been taken during election campaigns. 
Menachem Begin bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor during the 1981 campaign. 
When Shimon Peres claimed that this was an election gimmick, Begin cried out 
at his next rally: "Jews, do you believe that I would send our brave boys to 
their death or, worse, to be taken prisoner by human animals, in order to 
win an election?" Begin won.

Peres is no Begin. When, during the 1996 election campaign, he ordered the 
invasion of Lebanon (operation "Grapes of Wrath"), everybody was convinced 
that he had done it for electoral gain. The war was a failure and Peres lost 
the elections and Binyamin Netanyahu came to power.

Barak and Tzipi Livni are now resorting to the same old trick. According to 
the polls, Barak's predicted election result rose within 48 hours by five 
Knesset seats. About 80 dead Palestinians for each seat. But it is difficult 
to walk on a pile of dead bodies. The success may evaporate in a minute if 
the war comes to be considered by the Israeli public as a failure. For 
example, if the rockets continue to hit Beersheba, or if the ground attack 
leads to heavy Israeli casualties.

The timing was chosen meticulously from another angle too. The attack 
started two days after Christmas, when American and European leaders are on 
holiday until after New Year. The calculation: even if somebody wanted to 
try and stop the war, no one would give up his holiday. That ensured several 
days free from outside pressures.

Another reason for the timing: these are George Bush's last days in the 
White House. This blood-soaked moron could be expected to support the war 
enthusiastically, as indeed he did. Barack Obama has not yet entered office 
and had a ready made pretext for keeping silent: "there is only one 
President". The silence does not bode well for the term of president Obama.

THE MAIN LINE was: not to repeat the mistakes of Lebanon War II. This was 
endlessly repeated on all the news programs and talk shows.

This does not change the fact: the Gaza War is an almost exact replica of 
the second Lebanon war.

The strategic concept is the same: to terrorize the civilian population by 
unremitting attacks from the air, sowing death and destruction. This poses 
no danger to the pilots, since the Palestinians have no anti-aircraft 
weapons at all. The calculation: if the entire life-supporting 
infrastructure in the Strip is utterly destroyed and total anarchy ensues, 
the population will rise up and overthrow the Hamas regime. Mahmoud Abbas 
will then ride back into Gaza on the back of Israeli tanks.

In Lebanon, this calculation did not work out. The bombed population, 
including the Christians, rallied behind Hizbullah, and Hassan Nasrallah 
became the hero of the Arab world. Something similar will probably happen 
this time, too. Generals are experts on using weapons and moving troops, not 
on mass psychology.

Some time ago I wrote that the Gaza blockade was a scientific experiment 
designed to find out how much one can starve a population and turn its life 
into hell before they break. This experiment was conducted with the generous 
help of Europe and the US. Up to now, it did not succeed. Hamas became 
stronger and the range of the Qassams became longer. The present war is a 
continuation of the experiment by other means.

It may be that the army will "have no alternative" but to re-conquer the 
Gaza Strip because there is no other way to stop the Qassams - except coming 
to an agreement with Hamas, which is contrary to government policy. When the 
ground invasion starts, everything will depend on the motivation and 
capabilities of the Hamas fighters vis-à-vis the Israeli soldiers. Nobody 
can know what will happen.

DAY AFTER DAY, night after night, Aljazeera's Arabic channel broadcasts the 
atrocious pictures: heaps of mutilated bodies, tearful relatives looking for 
their dear ones among the dozens of corpses spread out on the ground, a 
woman pulling her young daughter from under the rubble, doctors without 
medicines trying to save the lives of the wounded. (The English-language 
Aljazeera, unlike its Arab-language sister-station, has undergone an amazing 
about face, broadcasting only a sanitized picture and freely distributing 
Israeli government propaganda. It would be interesting to know what happened 
there.)

Millions are seeing these terrible images, picture after picture, day after 
day. These images are imprinted on their minds forever: horrible Israel, 
abominable Israel, inhuman Israel. A whole generation of haters. That is a 
terrible price, which we will be compelled to pay long after the other 
results of the war itself have been forgotten in Israel.

But there is another thing that is being imprinted on the minds of these 
millions: the picture of the miserable, corrupt, passive Arab regimes.

As seen by Arabs, one fact stands out above all others: the wall of shame.

For the million and a half Arabs in Gaza, who are suffering so terribly, the 
only opening to the world that is not dominated by Israel is the border with 
Egypt. Only from there can food arrive to sustain life and medicaments to 
save the injured. This border remains closed at the height of the horror. 
The Egyptian army has blocked the only way for food and medicines to enter, 
while surgeons operate on the wounded without anesthetics.

Throughout the Arab world, from end to end, there echoed the words of Hassan 
Nasrallah: The leaders of Egypt are accomplices to the crime, they are 
collaborating with the "Zionist enemy" in trying to break the Palestinian 
people. It can be assumed that he did not mean only Mubarak, but also all 
the other leaders, from the king of Saudi Arabia to the Palestinian 
President. Seeing the demonstrations throughout the Arab world and listening 
to the slogans, one gets the impression that their leaders seem to many 
Arabs pathetic at best, and miserable collaborators at worst.

This will have historic consequences. A whole generation of Arab leaders, a 
generation imbued with the ideology of secular Arab nationalism, the 
successors of Gamal Abd-al-Nasser, Hafez al-Assad and Yasser Arafat, may be 
swept from the stage. In the Arab space, the only viable alternative is the 
ideology of Islamic fundamentalism.

This war is a writing on the wall: Israel is missing the historic chance of 
making peace with secular Arab nationalism. Tomorrow, It may be faced with a 
uniformly fundamentalist Arab world, Hamas multiplied by a thousand.

MY TAXI DRIVER in Tel-Aviv the other day was thinking aloud: Why not call up 
the sons of the ministers and members of the Knesset, form them into a 
combat unit and send them off to head the coming ground attack on Gaza?

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